Berg Insight says smart gas meter shipments will increase 118 percent until 2018
According to a new report from the M2M/IoT analyst firm Berg Insight, annual shipments of smart gas meters in Europe will increase 118 percent between 2016 and 2018 to reach 11.8 million units. The adoption of metering in the European gas market took off in 2016 as the number of installed devices more than doubled to 10.1 million units. By 2022, the installed base is projected to reach 62.4 million units. The increase will mainly be driven by nationwide rollouts in France, Italy, the Netherlands and the UK. Italy will be the largest market with annual demand projected to peak at more than 5 million units towards the end of the decade. The nationwide rollouts in France and the UK will pick up speed in 2017 as both countries enter the mass deployment phase. In the Netherlands, the full-scale rollout is already underway and will continue until the early 2020s. The smart gas metering systems use different forms of wireless communication. Short-range radio communication using the 169 MHz frequency band has somewhat unexpectedly become the de-facto industry networking standard in France and Italy where smart gas meters are deployed independently of smart electricity meters. Emerging LPWA technologies have arrived too late to have any significant impact on the market in the short term. “There is clearly a big gap between the wireless networking solutions pitched by the technology industry and the technologies adopted by utilities. In this case conventional point-to-multipoint radios can do the job at a reasonable cost and with proven reliability”, says Tobias Ryberg, senior analyst, Berg Insight.

Berg Insight says smart meter shipments in Europe will grow 105 percent until 2018
According to a new research report from the M2M/IoT analyst firm Berg Insight, annual shipments of smart electricity meters in Europe will more than double in the next two years. The market accelerated in 2016 and sales are expected to reach 13.5 million units during the year. In 2018, annual demand is forecasted to reach an unprecedented level of 27.6 million units. The peak of annual shipments in the range of 25–30 million units per year will be sustained until the end of the decade. “The European smart meter market benefits from two concurrent positive developments at the same time”, says Tobias Ryberg, Senior Analyst, Berg Insight and author of the report. “Firstly, the long-anticipated mass-rollouts in France and the UK are finally getting underway. Secondly, Enel is on the verge of launching the second wave of smart meter deployments in Italy as the first generation devices reach the end of their technical lifespan of 12–15 years”. The report also identifies Austria, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania and Spain as other hotspots for smart meters in the coming years. The outlook for Germany however remains negative in the short term. Even as the country recently adopted a new regulatory framework for the introduction of smart meters, large-scale deployments are still some years away. Unlike most other countries in Western Europe, Germany will only make smart meters mandatory for around 10 percent of the electricity customers before 2028. Berg Insight believes that a full-scale rollout may not be completed before the 2030s.

Autonomous cars will reach sales of 24 million units in 2030
According to a new research report from Berg Insight, the first autonomous cars will debut in 2020. The total number of new registrations of autonomous cars is forecasted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62 percent from 0.2 million units in 2020 to reach 24 million units in 2030. The active installed base of autonomous cars is forecasted to have reached about 71 million at the end of 2030. These figures include SAE Level 3 and 4 cars. It is important to note that autonomous cars are not a single innovation; rather this technology can be seen as a continuum of various levels of autonomy where the amount of driver involvement is the main differentiating factor. Furthermore, several sophisticated technologies must come together to enable a car to safely drive by itself and autonomous cars will therefore roll out in incremental phases. In particular, software for interpreting sensor information and managing the driving logic is key to the development of self-driving cars. Several automobile manufacturers have initiated projects to develop self-driving features in their cars. The incumbent automakers are joined by multiple new actors such as IT companies and other technology-oriented firms. Most incumbent automotive companies pursue an incremental approach with step-by-step roll-out of autonomous systems while startups and IT companies take a more revolutionary direction and aim at developing fully autonomous cars immediately from scratch. “These pathways do not contradict each other as different autonomous systems are suitable in different use cases. We will continue to see development from both sides for still some years before the two approaches converge”, says Ludvig Barrehag, M2M/IoT analyst at Berg Insight. The advent of autonomous cars is expected to have a tremendous impact on our society in several ways. Cars are among the most costly as well as inefficiently used assets of today. When cars can operate around the clock on a service based business model it results in a tremendous increase of their utilization rate. Furthermore, autonomous cars will improve life quality for people unable to drive, reduce the number of fatalities and accidents in road traffic and increase overall traffic efficiency. The economic benefits are vast – the challenge is to succeed in making self-driving cars sufficiently reliable at a reasonable cost to enable commercialization.

Shipments of cellular M2M terminals will reach 5.7 million units in 2020
Approximately 2.7 million cellular M2M terminals were shipped globally during 2015 according to a new research report from the M2M/IoT analyst firm Berg Insight. Growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.1 percent, this number is expected to reach 5.7 million in 2020. Berg Insight defines cellular terminals as standalone devices intended for connecting M2M devices to a cellular network. These include primarily general-purpose cellular routers, gateways and modems that are enclosed in a chassis and have at least one input/output port. Trackers, telematics devices and other specialised devices are excluded from this report. “North American and Asian vendors dominate the global cellular M2M terminal market”, said Jonas Wennermark, IoT/M2M Analyst at Berg Insight. Cradlepoint, Sierra Wireless and Digi International are the largest vendors in North America, whilst SIMCom is the main manufacturer on the Asian market. “Combined, these four vendors generated close to US$ 290 million in revenues from M2M terminal sales during 2015”, continued Mr. Wennermark. This is equivalent to more than 50 percent of the global market. Other noteworthy vendors include CalAmp and MultiTech Systems in the US; Xiamen Four-Faith and InHand Networks in Asia; HMS Networks, Advantech B+B SmartWorx, NetModule, Matrix Electrónica, Eurotech, Gemalto, Dr. Neuhaus and Option in Europe and NetComm Wireless in Australia. “A large number of small and medium sized vendors are active on the European market, whilst the North American market is dominated by a handful of major vendors, largely due to barriers in the form of carrier certifications required for cellular devices in the region”, concluded Mr. Wennermark.

Berg Insight adds analyst to its team
We welcome our new colleague Fredrik Stålbrand to Berg Insight. Fredrik will work as an M2M/IoT analyst in our Gothenburg office.

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